How Donald Trump Stand A Higher Chance To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

How Donald Trump Stand A Higher Chance To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

How Donald Trump Stand A Higher Chance To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022, Trump launched the start of his 2024 campaign at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

According to Alex Conant, who oversaw communications for Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, “He has surprised everyone before.” “I don’t believe anyone should dismiss him.” “Democrats, in my opinion, are not dismissing him.”

Even some of the most conservative Republicans in Congress are shaken by Trump’s devoted, passionate constituency. He has kept up a strong political operation since leaving the White House and has continued to hold rallies in the manner of a campaign across the nation.

Recent Republican underperformance in the 2022 midterm elections slowed this momentum, but Trump is still a strong contender for the GOP nomination. The future is far less assured after that.

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Insider asked seven experts who have worked on previous presidential campaigns to envision a scenario in which Trump runs for president again in 2024 and wins. This was done to get a sense of how Republicans see Trump’s future. Here is what they said:

When questioned about the possibility of Trump running for president again and winning, Black said Trump should quit discussing the 2020 race. Trump routinely claims that the election was rigged against him, but there is no proof to back up his claims of massive voter fraud.

His insane conviction that he stole the election is one reason, according to Black, why he might not win the nomination if he ran. He doesn’t understand that politics is always about the future and never the past.

Trump’s focus on the 2020 elections was also cited by Sarah Isgur, the deputy campaign manager for businesswoman Carly Fiorina’s 2016 presidential campaign, as a weakness among voters who were more concerned with concerns like inflation.                         

increase your outreach to voters of color

According to Jeff Roe, who oversaw Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 campaign in Virginia as well as Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign, Trump or any other Republican who runs for president should capitalize on the gains the previous administration achieved among voters of color.

According to Roe, who currently heads the consulting firm Axiom Strategies and represents GOP candidates around the US, Hispanics in particular are shifting toward conservatism.

While the majority of voters of color overwhelmingly backed Biden in the 2020 election and contributed to his victory, Trump did perform better than in 2016. According to exit polls, non-white voters provided 26% of Trump’s support during the 2016 presidential election. According to a report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, Trump’s support increased by around 8 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2016.

Given that he previously lost to the president in an election with a record-high turnout, how is Trump going to persuade Americans that he can defeat him this time? Even Conant deemed it “unlikely” that Trump would win in the future.

Everyone has already made up their minds about Donald Trump, according to Conant, who is now a founding partner at the public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies. “He has to find people who don’t like him yet to vote for him,” Conant said.

According to some GOP insiders, if Trump’s approval ratings continue to plummet, he will be able to criticize Biden’s record. However, even that would be difficult, according to Mike DuHaime, the CEO of Mad Global Strategy Group, who assisted Chris Christie’s 2016 campaign.

DuHaime stated that “Biden is considered as personally likeable.” When it comes to voting, “it matters a lot.”

Additionally, he added, a challenger to an incumbent president must be able to frame the election as a vote on the president in office.

Trump would struggle more than anyone else if the election turned into a contest between him and Biden, according to DuHaime. If the incumbent is unpopular, “you want the race to be about them.”

All of this assumes that Biden will run for reelection. The president, who is 79 years old and will be 82 on the day of the 2025 inauguration, has said he plans to run again and has named Harris as his running mate. However, it might take more than a year for Biden to publicly decide to run for reelection.

Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, predicted that if Trump decided to run again, he would have no trouble defeating Biden in a rematch.

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“I’m not Donald Trump” was his slogan throughout his whole campaign. I’ll take responsibility for everything. We won’t become the target of international ridicule. COVID will be under my authority soon. “I’m going to cease fomenting conflict,” he said.

One year later, according to Sullivan, Biden had not followed through on his pledges, including using what Sullivan perceived to be controversial language regarding voting-rights legislation and the filibuster.

According to Sullivan, “He compares anyone who opposes him on voting rights to a hate-mongering slaveholder, and the filibuster is now suddenly racist.” He is preoccupied with doing what he must to keep his base in line because he is so terrified of them.

He told Trump to “don’t die” in order to win. 76 is Donald Trump’s age. On the day of the 2025 inauguration, he would be 78 years old.

According to a white paper published in 2019 by the American Federation for Aging Research, Trump would have another 11.4 years to live after the 2021 inauguration. The analysis would need to revise its forecasts in light of Trump’s current health in 2025, which would give him just enough time to finish a full term.

Four of the strategists Insider spoke with, including Isgur, believed that Trump’s chances in 2024 depend partly on the Democratic nominee and not only on the outgoing president.

Despite Biden’s declaration that he will run, there have been suspicions among Democrats that he won’t seek reelection.

Even the possibility of Hillary Clinton running again has been floated, which at least two GOP insiders said would be in Trump’s favor.

Black stated that for Trump to prevail, “the Democrats would have to pick the worst possible candidate, just like what he had happen in 2016.” Because he has and will have much more baggage than Hillary, it must be someone worse.

DuHaime held the same opinion. Trump’s response to the question of how he would triumph in 2024 was, “Maybe run against Hillary again.” He declared, “Hillary lost as much as Trump gained.”

Trump would probably need to change his campaigning approach and message to be able to win over all votes in a general election. Republican hopes that this will happen, however, are pointless, according to Sullivan.

“They obviously haven’t seen this movie before,” he said. Trump’s route to victory is “very straightforward,” Miller said.

“It’s through a GOP primary where he’s not really challenged that hard, and then circumstances—whether economic circumstance or the candidate—work in his favor in a general election,” he added.